Publication: ‘Why Goodluck Jonathan Lost the Nigerian Presidential Election of 2015’

Our publication (with colleague Dr Olly Owen) in the July edition of the journal, African Affairs is out. We wrote a brief on the Nigerian presidential election in March 2015, assessing why the election was exceptional in many respects, why many previous predictions including ours of a runoff or an outright Jonathan/PDP victory did not … More Publication: ‘Why Goodluck Jonathan Lost the Nigerian Presidential Election of 2015’

Speaking at Chatham House Event on Elections, Boko Haram and Security in Nigeria

I will be participating in a panel, at an event organised by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, aka Chatham House. The title is: Elections, Boko Haram and Security: Assessing and Addressing Nigeria’s Complex Challenges. It is taking place at Chatham House offices in London, on 9 December 2014, from 9.30 am to 12 noon GMT. … More Speaking at Chatham House Event on Elections, Boko Haram and Security in Nigeria

Incumbency and Opportunity: Forecasting Nigeria’s 2015 Elections

For months, my colleague, Dr. Oliver Owen and I have been working on some forecasting of Nigeria 2015 elections based on 2011 dynamics. The draft findings were recently posted on African Arguments HERE. I am re-posting it below. We welcome all comments, suggestions, critiques etc as we continue to refine our understanding of this rapidly … More Incumbency and Opportunity: Forecasting Nigeria’s 2015 Elections