Our publication (with colleague Dr Olly Owen) in the July edition of the journal, African Affairs is out. We wrote a brief on the Nigerian presidential election in March 2015, assessing why the election was exceptional in many respects, why many previous predictions including ours of a runoff or an outright Jonathan/PDP victory did not … More Publication: ‘Why Goodluck Jonathan Lost the Nigerian Presidential Election of 2015’
For months, my colleague, Dr. Oliver Owen and I have been working on some forecasting of Nigeria 2015 elections based on 2011 dynamics. The draft findings were recently posted on African Arguments HERE. I am re-posting it below. We welcome all comments, suggestions, critiques etc as we continue to refine our understanding of this rapidly … More Incumbency and Opportunity: Forecasting Nigeria’s 2015 Elections
“This is a new dawn for our generation. This is unusual. It is gratifying that they are here to see and share with us,” the middle aged man remarked with tears of joy when he saw the nine state governors trekking through the volatile Monday Market in Boko Haram hotspot, Maiduguri, shaking hands with fish … More APC: The Game Changer?